Justice sector forecast

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We produce the Justice Sector Forecast on behalf of the justice sector. The forecast is important for strategic planning within the sector. It includes:

  • Prison forecast, covering the sentenced and remand prison populations. This looks 10 years ahead to give a long-term view of trends in the prison population.
  • One-year Prison forecast, also covering the sentenced and remand prison populations. This looks ahead on a weekly basis for one year to capture short-term variation in the prison population, and is updated quarterly.
  • Non-custodial sentences forecast covering offenders serving community sentences, and those on post-sentence orders.
  • Crown Law forecast, covering the numbers of Crown prosecutions and appeals undertaken by Crown solicitors (under the oversight of the Solicitor-General) or lawyers from Crown Law.
  • Fines and remittals forecast, covering the numbers of impositions, receipts and remittals of monetary penalties to Community Work sentences.
  • Legal aid forecast, covering the numbers of grants, average costs, expenditure, and debt recovery for legal aid.

Quarterly monitoring reports

These reports monitor the progress of the forecast against the real-life behaviour of the system, and also look at how accurate forecast assumptions have been.  From March 2016, these will be called Justice Sector Outlook reports, and will include details of any forecasts refreshed during the most recent quarter.

Justice Sector Outlook June 2016 [PDF, 1004 KB]

Justice Sector Outlook March 2016 [PDF, 820 KB]

Data for Justice Sector Outlook March 2016 [XLSX, 967 KB]

Quarter ending December 2015 [PDF, 248 KB]

Data for quarterly update December 2015 [XLSX, 969 KB]

Quarter ending September 2015 [PDF, 249 KB]

Data for quarterly update September 2015 [XLSX, 944 KB]

Earlier monitoring reports (back to January 2009) can be found using our Find a publication tool.

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Forecast reports

Forecast reports give details of new forecasts. Prior to 2013 there was one forecast a year, covering an increasing number of parts of the justice sector. Since 2013, that forecast has been broken down into several smaller forecasts.

One year prison population forecast - September 2016 [PDF, 254 KB]

Data for September one year forecast [XLSX, 54 KB]

Legal Aid forecast 2015-2020 - October 2015 [PDF, 397 KB]

Data for Legal Aid forecast 2015-2020 [XLS, 493 KB]

Non-custodial sentences forecast 2015-2025 - December 2015 [PDF, 1.2 MB]

Data for non-custodial sentences forecast 2015-2025 [XLSX, 572 KB]

Prison forecast 2015-2025 - December 2015 [PDF, 346 KB]

Data for prison forecast 2015-2025 [XLSX, 129 KB]

Fines and Remittals forecast 2015-2020 - August 2015 [PDF, 477 KB]

Data for Fines and Remittals forecast 2015-2020 [XLSX, 158 KB]

Earlier reports (back to 2005) can be found using our Find a publication tool.

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More information

If you're interested in finding out more about the justice sector forecasts, you can email us.

Email: justiceinfo@justice.govt.nz.

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