The Ministry of Justice | Te Tahū o te Ture, in collaboration with justice sector agencies Department of Corrections – Ara Poutama Aotearoa, New Zealand Police, Oranga Tamariki, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office has released its latest projections for New Zealand’s prison population over the next 10 years.
The projections, which evaluate long-term trends to estimate what may occur in the criminal justice system, help to inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
This year’s report projects the prison population will increase from 9,294 in February 2024 to 11,317 in June 2034. This excludes the impact of policy programmes in development.
The projected increase in total prison population is driven by the increase in both remand and sentenced population. The sentenced population is projected to reach its peak in September 2026 at 5,826 then stabilise around 5,700 until June 2034. Unlike the sentenced population, the remand population is projected to increase consistently – from 4,132 in February 2024 to 5,592 in June 2034.
Ministry of Justice Sector Insights General Manager Rebecca Parish said the remand population is projected to grow in the long term as people spend longer in custodial remand. “This is due in part to cases taking longer to be resolved in court,” Parish said.
“Several initiatives are already in place or in development to improve delays in the court system, including the Timely Justice Action Plan – a consolidated programme of initiatives across Police, Ministry of Justice, Department of Corrections, and the judiciary,” Parish said.
The plan aims to improve court and remand timeliness by reducing the average time taken to resolve a case and therefore reduce the average time spent in custodial remand.
Policy programmes which are currently in development or before Parliament also have the potential to impact on the prison population. This includes planned, but yet to be formally implemented, initiatives and legislation. These are estimated to further increase the total prison population by between approximately 2,000 and 2,400 over the next 10 years (up to between 13,300 and 13,700 in June 2034). These estimates will change as policy undergoes further development.
The full report can be found here: https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/research-data/justice-sector-forecast/
For more information, contact media@justice.govt.nz
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